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Copyright � 2004. Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.

2004 National League Pitchers thru games of Monday, April 5

_______________________________________________________________________
PITCHERS ARE LISTED IN THREE TIERS: (all pitchers are now listed)

(A)
(B)
(C)

the headings over and within each tier tell how many innings pitched
the pitchers in that particular tier have

predicted ERA = what the pitcher's ERA "should be" (NPERA) given his
  raw statistics NORMALIZED to composite major league
  play of 1946-1999
this is the best REAL-LIFE measure of the pitcher's true PITCHING VALUE
MARKOV CHAIN analysis is the mathematical technique used

an average pitcher will have a NORMALIZED predicted ERA of 3.87

if the pitchers are NORMALIZED, that means that their predicted ERA's
are what they would have achieved if they had pitched in the
hypothetical composite major leagues of 1946-1999.

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Markov Chain NPERA represents REAL-LIFE pitching value,
while DOLLAR$ represents FANTASY LEAGUE value.
_______________________________________________________________________

The DOLLAR$ figure has been arrived at by comparing the player's
statistics in the variables relative to FANTASY LEAGUES to those of all
other players in his league (AMERICAN or NATIONAL), and then putting
the results into the context of a typical fantasy league with 11-12 teams,
each with 25 players (15 batters, 10 pitchers) and a $283 salary cap.
The 11-12 teams is per AMERICAN or NATIONAL league. If a fantasy league
is a "mixed league" -- players can be chosen from BOTH major leagues,
then consider the numbers as if the mixed league had 23 fantasy teams.


Pitchers are rated on FIVE CATEGORIES: (1) INNINGS PITCHED
(note: MOB=(HITS+WALKS+HBP) per 9 inn) (2) SQRT(ERA x MOB)
  (3) RICKEY ((ip-h) + (SO-(w+hbp)))
  (4) WINS
  (5) SAVES


Note that the category RICKEY is simply the following
measurement of the pitcher's power:  (IP-H) + (SO - (W+HBP))

Batter and pitcher DOLLAR$ ratings do NOT take account of POSITION or
STARTING or RELIEF status for batters and pitchers respectively.


By the fact that the DOLLAR$ figure is arrived at by comparing a player
to others STRICTLY within his own league (AMERICAN or NATIONAL),
it could happen that better raw statistics in one league could be worth
a lesser dollar figure than a lesser raw statistics in the other league
because they weren't as relatively good in their own league as the
lesser RAW statistics were in their league.
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2004 National League Pitchers thru games of Monday, April 5
  1 or more innings pitched  
   markov
  NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY

A 1 Tavarez, Julian STL R .00 12.0$ 1.0 .00 2 0 .00 0 3.0
A 2 Wuertz, Michael CHC R .00 12.0$ 1.0 .00 2 0 .00 0 3.0
A 3 Herges, Matt SF R .00 18.7$ 1.0 .00 1 0 .00 1 2.0
A 4 Riedling, John CIN R .00 11.4$ 1.0 .00 1 0 .00 0 2.0
A 5 Rodriguez, Felix SF R .00 18.0$ 1.0 .00 1 1 .00 0 2.0
A 6 Sanchez, Duaner LA R .00 11.4$ 1.0 .00 1 0 .00 0 2.0
A 7 Kolb, Danny MIL R .01 17.9$ 1.0 .00 0 0 .00 1 1.0
A 8 Mercker, Kent CHC L .01 10.7$ 1.0 .00 0 0 .00 0 1.0
A 9 Mesa, Jose PIT R .01 17.9$ 1.0 .00 0 0 .00 1 1.0
A 10 Hernandez, Roberto PHI R .16 13.7$ 2.0 .00 1 0 4.50 0 2.0
   markov
  NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY

A 11 Burba, Dave MIL R .22 18.5$ 1.2 .00 1 1 10.80 0 .2
A 12 Vizcaino, Luis MIL R 1.10 11.4$ 1.0 .00 2 0 9.00 0 2.0
A 13 Farnsworth, Kyle CHC R 1.27 10.7$ 1.0 .00 1 0 9.00 0 1.0
A 14 Dreifort, Darren LA R 1.45 8.9$ 1.0 .00 0 0 9.00 0 .0
A 15 Wells, Kip PIT R 1.76 27.3$ 6.0 .00 7 1 12.00 0 5.0
A 16 Lincoln, Mike STL R 1.84 12.4$ 1.1 .00 3 0 13.50 0 2.1
A 17 Wagner, Ryan CIN R 1.99 10.7$ 1.0 .00 2 0 18.00 0 1.0
A 18 Dotel, Octavio HOU R 2.05 7.9$ 1.0 9.00 1 0 9.00 0 1.0
A 19 Borowski, Joe CHC R 2.56 17.9$ 1.0 .00 2 0 18.00 1 1.0
A 20 Torres, Salomon PIT R 3.19 8.0$ 2.0 4.50 1 0 13.50 0 .0
   markov
  NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY

A 21 Wood, Kerry CHC R 3.44 18.4$ 5.0 7.20 6 1 14.40 0 3.0
A 22 Ford, Ben MIL R 3.49 6.6$ 2.0 9.00 1 0 13.50 0 .0
A 23 Osuna, Antonio SD R 3.63 8.9$ 1.0 .00 1 0 18.00 0 .0
A 24 Millwood, Kevin PHI R 4.00 17.5$ 6.0 3.00 4 0 10.50 0 3.0
A 25 Oswalt, Roy HOU R 4.34 14.1$ 7.1 4.91 4 0 12.27 0 1.1
A 26 Rueter, Kirk SF L 4.38 11.8$ 6.0 3.00 0 0 12.00 0 -2.0
A 27 Lidle, Cory CIN R 5.21 10.0$ 5.0 9.00 4 0 14.40 0 1.0
A 28 Morris, Matt STL R 5.98 7.3$ 6.0 7.50 3 0 15.00 0 -1.0
A 29 Lawrence, Brian SD R 7.01 17.6$ 5.0 1.80 3 1 18.00 0 -2.0
A 30 Sheets, Ben MIL R 7.23 4.6$ 3.1 8.10 3 0 21.60 0 -1.2
   markov
  NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY

A 31 Witasick, Jay SD R 7.41 8.9$ 1.0 .00 1 0 18.00 0 .0
A 32 Nomo, Hideo LA R 7.96 3.5$ 5.0 12.60 1 0 18.00 0 -4.0
A 33 Linebrink, Scott SD R 8.87 7.2$ 1.0 .00 0 0 18.00 0 -1.0
A 34 Alvarez, Wilson LA L 13.35 3.9$ 2.0 4.50 0 0 22.50 0 -3.0
A 35 Jones, Todd CIN R 37.17 6.5$ 1.0 .00 0 0 27.00 0 -2.0
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2004 National League Pitchers thru games of Monday, April 5
  1 to 0 innings pitched  
   markov
  NPERA DOL$ IP ERA SO WN MOB SV RICKEY

B 1 Reith, Brian CIN R .01 7.7$ .1 .00 0 0 .00 0 .1
B 2 Walker, Kevin SF L .01 7.7$ .1 .00 0 0 .00 0 .1
B 3 Norton, Phil CIN L 2.90 6.9$ .2 .00 0 0 13.50 0 -0.1
B 4 Oropesa, Eddie SD L 6.31 5.2$ .1 .00 0 0 27.00 0 -0.2
B 5 Lidge, Brad HOU R 7.17 9.4$ .2 .00 2 0 27.00 0 .2
B 6 Valdez, Ismael SD R 15.95 1.4$ .2 13.50 0 0 40.50 0 -2.1
B 7 King, Ray STL L 19.48 2.4$ .2 13.50 0 0 27.00 0 -1.1
B 8 Estrella, Leo SF R 23.44 .0$ .2 27.00 0 0 54.00 0 -3.1
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end of pitchers

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