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Predictions_with_Totals


just click on "Predictions_with_Totals" and it will take you to the daily predictions at bottom of file

NBA 2019-2020 ratings through results of 2019 NOVEMBER 16 SATURDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
  (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
  (listed top-to-bottom & by conference)
  (3) teams listed by DIVISION
  (listed in order within divisions)

The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 97 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 95.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 94 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 84.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
  In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
  illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.


The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's CURRENT top 10
 and CURRENT top 16 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS)GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  1 Milwaukee Bucks =  98.72  9 3 92.50( 1) 3 3 | 5 3  |  98.95 1 |  98.44 1 |  98.98 1  CENTRAL
  2 Los Angeles Lakers =  96.72  10 2 89.47( 19) 2 2 | 4 2  |  96.72 2 |  96.62 2 |  97.05 3  pacific
  3 Boston Celtics =  96.10  10 1 88.56( 28) 2 1 | 3 1  |  95.42 4 |  96.32 3 |  97.75 2  ATLANTIC
  4 Houston Rockets =  95.10  10 3 89.53( 17) 1 2 | 2 3  |  94.37 8 |  95.39 5 |  96.57 4  southwest
  5 Utah Jazz =  94.93  8 4 91.05( 4) 3 2 | 5 2  |  94.98 5 |  95.47 4 |  93.98 6  northwest
  6 Los Angeles Clippers =  94.85  8 5 90.82( 6) 3 3 | 4 4  |  95.86 3 |  95.17 6 |  92.87 8  pacific
  7 Miami Heat =  94.71  9 3 90.22( 13) 2 2 | 3 2  |  94.59 6 |  94.47 7 |  95.73 5  SOUTHEAST
  8 Toronto Raptors =  94.11  8 4 91.72( 2) 1 3 | 3 4  |  94.45 7 |  94.43 8 |  92.97 7  ATLANTIC
  9 Denver Nuggets =  93.68  8 3 89.52( 18) 2 0 | 6 1  |  93.58 9 |  94.37 9 |  92.68 9  northwest
  10 Philadelphia 76ers =  92.31  7 5 90.31( 11) 1 2 | 2 4  |  93.10 10 |  93.45 10 |  88.94 16  ATLANTIC
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  11 Phoenix Suns =  91.46  7 4 89.86( 15) 2 4 | 3 4  |  91.63 11 |  90.82 13 |  92.63 10  pacific
  12 Dallas Mavericks =  91.29  7 5 89.11( 23) 2 2 | 3 3  |  91.28 12 |  91.34 11 |  91.32 12  southwest
  13 Indiana Pacers =  90.97  7 6 87.97( 30) 0 2 | 2 2  |  90.95 13 |  90.87 12 |  91.32 11  CENTRAL
  14 Orlando Magic =  89.51  5 7 88.94( 26) 1 3 | 1 5  |  89.36 15 |  89.04 16 |  90.91 13  SOUTHEAST
  15 Portland Trail Blazers =  89.49  5 8 90.35( 10) 0 4 | 1 5  |  90.25 14 |  89.60 14 |  87.65 22  northwest
  16 Brooklyn Nets =  88.85  5 7 89.59( 16) 1 2 | 2 4  |  88.62 17 |  89.10 15 |  88.87 18  ATLANTIC
  17 Sacramento Kings =  88.49  4 7 90.80( 7) 1 4 | 2 6  |  88.53 19 |  87.91 19 |  89.66 14  pacific
  18 Oklahoma City Thunder =  88.29  5 7 89.40( 21) 1 3 | 2 5  |  88.69 16 |  87.37 20 |  89.33 15  northwest
  19 San Antonio Spurs =  87.88  5 8 88.39( 29) 0 3 | 1 5  |  88.57 18 |  88.38 18 |  84.70 27  southwest
  20 Minnesota Timberwolves =  87.57  7 6 89.43( 20) 1 4 | 2 4  |  87.47 21 |  88.48 17 |  85.60 25  northwest
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  21 New Orleans Pelicans =  87.45  3 9 91.68( 3) 2 5 | 2 7  |  87.53 20 |  87.22 21 |  87.87 21  southwest
  22 Cleveland Cavaliers =  86.83  4 7 91.02( 5) 0 4 | 1 7  |  86.91 22 |  85.89 23 |  88.44 19  CENTRAL
  23 Washington Wizards =  86.58  3 7 90.25( 12) 0 2 | 0 4  |  86.35 24 |  85.49 27 |  88.87 17  SOUTHEAST
  24 Chicago Bulls =  85.98  4 9 89.01( 24) 0 4 | 0 6  |  86.21 25 |  85.77 26 |  86.04 23  CENTRAL
  25 Detroit Pistons =  85.85  4 9 88.99( 25) 0 3 | 3 4  |  86.63 23 |  85.84 24 |  83.73 29  CENTRAL
  26 Golden State Warriors =  85.49  2 11 90.75( 8) 0 5 | 1 6  |  85.43 26 |  86.18 22 |  83.83 28  pacific
  27 Atlanta Hawks =  85.36  4 8 90.73( 9) 1 4 | 2 6  |  85.17 27 |  85.77 25 |  84.92 26  SOUTHEAST
  28 Memphis Grizzlies =  85.22  5 7 90.18( 14) 1 3 | 2 6  |  83.61 28 |  84.84 28 |  87.96 20  southwest
  29 Charlotte Hornets =  84.08  6 7 88.78( 27) 0 4 | 1 4  |  82.99 29 |  83.97 29 |  85.88 24  SOUTHEAST
  30 New York Knicks =  82.12  3 10 89.26( 22) 0 2 | 2 4  |  81.81 30 |  82.00 30 |  82.93 30  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings



There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.



   DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%

  1 pacific = 91.47 91.40 ( 1) 5 91.42 ( 1)
  2 ATLANTIC = 91.23 90.70 ( 3) 5 90.87 ( 2)
  3 northwest = 90.55 90.79 ( 2) 5 90.77 ( 3)
  4 southwest = 89.05 89.39 ( 5) 5 89.34 ( 5)
  5 CENTRAL = 88.77 89.67 ( 4) 5 89.43 ( 4)
  6 SOUTHEAST = 87.59 88.05 ( 6) 5 87.96 ( 6)


   DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%

  2 ATLANTIC = 91.23 90.70 ( 3) 5 90.87 ( 2)
  5 CENTRAL = 88.77 89.67 ( 4) 5 89.43 ( 4)
  6 SOUTHEAST = 87.59 88.05 ( 6) 5 87.96 ( 6)
  4 southwest = 89.05 89.39 ( 5) 5 89.34 ( 5)
  3 northwest = 90.55 90.79 ( 2) 5 90.77 ( 3)
  1 pacific = 91.47 91.40 ( 1) 5 91.42 ( 1)
__________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  2 ATLANTIC = 91.23 90.70 ( 3) TEAMS= 5 90.87 ( 2)
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  3 Boston Celtics =  96.10  10 1 88.56( 28) 2 1 | 3 1  |  95.42 4 |  96.32 3 |  97.75 2  ATLANTIC
  8 Toronto Raptors =  94.11  8 4 91.72( 2) 1 3 | 3 4  |  94.45 7 |  94.43 8 |  92.97 7  ATLANTIC
  10 Philadelphia 76ers =  92.31  7 5 90.31( 11) 1 2 | 2 4  |  93.10 10 |  93.45 10 |  88.94 16  ATLANTIC
  16 Brooklyn Nets =  88.85  5 7 89.59( 16) 1 2 | 2 4  |  88.62 17 |  89.10 15 |  88.87 18  ATLANTIC
  30 New York Knicks =  82.12  3 10 89.26( 22) 0 2 | 2 4  |  81.81 30 |  82.00 30 |  82.93 30  ATLANTIC
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  5 CENTRAL = 88.77 89.67 ( 4) TEAMS= 5 89.43 ( 4)
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  1 Milwaukee Bucks =  98.72  9 3 92.50( 1) 3 3 | 5 3  |  98.95 1 |  98.44 1 |  98.98 1  CENTRAL
  13 Indiana Pacers =  90.97  7 6 87.97( 30) 0 2 | 2 2  |  90.95 13 |  90.87 12 |  91.32 11  CENTRAL
  22 Cleveland Cavaliers =  86.83  4 7 91.02( 5) 0 4 | 1 7  |  86.91 22 |  85.89 23 |  88.44 19  CENTRAL
  24 Chicago Bulls =  85.98  4 9 89.01( 24) 0 4 | 0 6  |  86.21 25 |  85.77 26 |  86.04 23  CENTRAL
  25 Detroit Pistons =  85.85  4 9 88.99( 25) 0 3 | 3 4  |  86.63 23 |  85.84 24 |  83.73 29  CENTRAL
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  6 SOUTHEAST = 87.59 88.05 ( 6) TEAMS= 5 87.96 ( 6)
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  7 Miami Heat =  94.71  9 3 90.22( 13) 2 2 | 3 2  |  94.59 6 |  94.47 7 |  95.73 5  SOUTHEAST
  14 Orlando Magic =  89.51  5 7 88.94( 26) 1 3 | 1 5  |  89.36 15 |  89.04 16 |  90.91 13  SOUTHEAST
  23 Washington Wizards =  86.58  3 7 90.25( 12) 0 2 | 0 4  |  86.35 24 |  85.49 27 |  88.87 17  SOUTHEAST
  27 Atlanta Hawks =  85.36  4 8 90.73( 9) 1 4 | 2 6  |  85.17 27 |  85.77 25 |  84.92 26  SOUTHEAST
  29 Charlotte Hornets =  84.08  6 7 88.78( 27) 0 4 | 1 4  |  82.99 29 |  83.97 29 |  85.88 24  SOUTHEAST
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  4 southwest = 89.05 89.39 ( 5) TEAMS= 5 89.34 ( 5)
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  4 Houston Rockets =  95.10  10 3 89.53( 17) 1 2 | 2 3  |  94.37 8 |  95.39 5 |  96.57 4  southwest
  12 Dallas Mavericks =  91.29  7 5 89.11( 23) 2 2 | 3 3  |  91.28 12 |  91.34 11 |  91.32 12  southwest
  19 San Antonio Spurs =  87.88  5 8 88.39( 29) 0 3 | 1 5  |  88.57 18 |  88.38 18 |  84.70 27  southwest
  21 New Orleans Pelicans =  87.45  3 9 91.68( 3) 2 5 | 2 7  |  87.53 20 |  87.22 21 |  87.87 21  southwest
  28 Memphis Grizzlies =  85.22  5 7 90.18( 14) 1 3 | 2 6  |  83.61 28 |  84.84 28 |  87.96 20  southwest
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  3 northwest = 90.55 90.79 ( 2) TEAMS= 5 90.77 ( 3)
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  5 Utah Jazz =  94.93  8 4 91.05( 4) 3 2 | 5 2  |  94.98 5 |  95.47 4 |  93.98 6  northwest
  9 Denver Nuggets =  93.68  8 3 89.52( 18) 2 0 | 6 1  |  93.58 9 |  94.37 9 |  92.68 9  northwest
  15 Portland Trail Blazers =  89.49  5 8 90.35( 10) 0 4 | 1 5  |  90.25 14 |  89.60 14 |  87.65 22  northwest
  18 Oklahoma City Thunder =  88.29  5 7 89.40( 21) 1 3 | 2 5  |  88.69 16 |  87.37 20 |  89.33 15  northwest
  20 Minnesota Timberwolves =  87.57  7 6 89.43( 20) 1 4 | 2 4  |  87.47 21 |  88.48 17 |  85.60 25  northwest
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  1 pacific = 91.47 91.40 ( 1) TEAMS= 5 91.42 ( 1)
NBA 2019-2020 through games of 2019 November 16 Saturday  
   RATING  W L SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  2.50] [  2.46] [  2.57] [  2.46]
  2 Los Angeles Lakers =  96.72  10 2 89.47( 19) 2 2 | 4 2  |  96.72 2 |  96.62 2 |  97.05 3  pacific
  6 Los Angeles Clippers =  94.85  8 5 90.82( 6) 3 3 | 4 4  |  95.86 3 |  95.17 6 |  92.87 8  pacific
  11 Phoenix Suns =  91.46  7 4 89.86( 15) 2 4 | 3 4  |  91.63 11 |  90.82 13 |  92.63 10  pacific
  17 Sacramento Kings =  88.49  4 7 90.80( 7) 1 4 | 2 6  |  88.53 19 |  87.91 19 |  89.66 14  pacific
  26 Golden State Warriors =  85.49  2 11 90.75( 8) 0 5 | 1 6  |  85.43 26 |  86.18 22 |  83.83 28  pacific
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Predictions_with_Totals


  These are the "regular method". _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _
both teams in lower case _
means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _
  MONEY=odds to 100 _
  FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _
======================================================================================================
  boston celtics 5.12 4.44 5.85 5.63 SACRAMENTO KINGS 196 66% 217.55
  denver nuggets 5.96 7.52 6.97 2.27 MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES 218 69% 213.98
  LOS ANGELES LAKERS 13.86 14.00 13.41 14.59 atlanta hawks 546 85% 213.78
  NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 4.46 4.55 3.60 6.50 golden state warrior 180 64% 238.43
  ORLANDO MAGIC 5.43 5.47 6.12 4.50 washington wizards 204 67% 214.25
  philadelphia 76ers 2.98 3.74 5.00 -1.96 CLEVELAND CAVALIERS 149 60% 212.66

EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence
  EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG
  1 Boston Celtics 7.10 250 71% @ Sacramento Kings
  2 Denver Nuggets 5.91 216 68% @ Memphis Grizzlies
  3 @ Los Angeles Lakers 14.23 568 85% Atlanta Hawks
  4 @ New Orleans Pelicans 7.95 277 73% Golden State Warrior
  5 @ Orlando Magic 3.36 156 61% Washington Wizards
  6 Philadelphia 76ers 2.03 131 57% @ Cleveland Cavaliers
endfile

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