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All Contents Copyright © 2019 Jeff Sagarintm. All rights reserved.

Predictions_with_Totals



2019 MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER ratings through results of APRIL 17 WEDNESDAY


this output has three parts: (1) teams listed by RATING top-to-bottom
  (2) DIVISION AVERAGES
  (listed top-to-bottom)
  (3) teams listed by DIVISIONS
  (listed top-to-bottom within divisions)


The SCHEDULE ratings represent what the rating would have to be for a
hypothetical team to have a mathematical expectation of winning precisely 50%
of their games against the schedule played by the team in question in the games
that it has played so far. The schedule difficulty of each given game takes
into account the rating of the opponent and the location of the game. This
is the same concept that is used in computing the WIN50% conference ratings.


 To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
 the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL .50 goals for the home
 team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 2.47 would be
 favored by 1.08 goals over a VISITING team having a rating of 1.89
 Or a VISITING team with a rating of 3.14 would be favored by .29 goals
 over a HOME team having a rating of 2.35

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
  In the example just above, a home edge of .50 was shown for
  illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.
Several different home edges are shown, one for each of the several different type of ratings
directly over their respective columns.


The numbers to the right of a team's schedule strength are its rank of
schedule - (in parentheses) - and its record versus teams in these
rating's top 5
 and top 10 respectively.

Teams that appear to be tied to two decimal places in a given column are actually
different when carried to more decimal places in the computer's internal arithmetic.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The PREDICTOR, is such that the score is the only thing that matters.
PREDICTOR is also known as PURE_POINTS, BALLANTINE, RHEINGOLD, WHITE OWL
and is a very good PREDICTOR of future games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GOLDEN_MEAN also utilizes the actual SCORES of the games in a different way but is also completely SCORE BASED
and thus should be a good match for the PURE POINTS in terms of predictive accuracy for upcoming games.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The overall RATING is a synthesis of the three different SCORE-BASED methods, PREDICTOR(PURE_POINTS)GOLDEN_MEAN,
and RECENT and thus should be a good predictor in its own right.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of April 17 Wednesday  
   RATING   W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.50] [  0.48] [  0.51] [  0.48]
  1 Seattle Sounders FC =  2.65  5 0 1 1.69( 23) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 |  2.72 2 |  2.77 2 |  2.45 4  western
  2 Sporting Kansas City =  2.52  2 1 3 1.91( 14) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.56 3 |  2.53 3 |  2.49 3  western
  3 LA Galaxy =  2.49  5 1 0 1.73( 21) 0 0 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.37 4 |  2.41 4 |  2.96 1  western
  4 Los Angeles FC =  2.43  6 1 1 1.92( 13) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 |  2.92 1 |  2.77 1 |  1.97 14  western
  5 Houston Dynamo =  2.37  4 0 1 1.46( 24) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 |  2.26 7 |  2.38 5 |  2.32 5  western
  6 Toronto FC =  2.29  3 1 1 1.87( 16) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.35 6 |  2.37 7 |  2.12 9  EASTERN
  7 FC Dallas =  2.27  4 2 1 1.73( 22) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.11 9 |  2.27 8 |  2.27 6  western
  8 D.C. United =  2.26  4 1 2 1.84( 17) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.37 5 |  2.38 6 |  2.00 13  EASTERN
  9 Atlanta United FC =  2.14  1 2 2 2.00( 10) 0 0 0 | 0 1 1 |  2.08 11 |  2.16 9 |  2.06 11  EASTERN
  10 Philadelphia Union =  2.13  3 3 1 2.29( 4) 0 2 0 | 1 3 1 |  2.03 14 |  2.13 10 |  2.11 10  EASTERN
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of April 17 Wednesday  
   RATING   W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.50] [  0.48] [  0.51] [  0.48]
  11 Montreal Impact =  2.06  3 2 2 2.39( 2) 0 2 0 | 0 2 1 |  1.97 15 |  2.06 12 |  2.05 12  EASTERN
  12 New York City FC =  2.00  0 1 5 2.09( 8) 0 0 1 | 0 1 2 |  2.07 12 |  2.03 13 |  1.92 15  EASTERN
  13 Columbus Crew SC =  1.99  4 2 1 1.82( 20) 0 0 0 | 2 1 0 |  2.06 13 |  2.12 11 |  1.57 20  EASTERN
  14 Vancouver Whitecaps FC =  1.95  1 4 2 2.16( 7) 1 2 1 | 1 2 1 |  1.82 17 |  1.72 18 |  2.81 2  western
  15 Minnesota United FC =  1.91  3 2 1 2.18( 5) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 |  2.09 10 |  1.96 14 |  1.76 18  western
  16 Real Salt Lake =  1.89  2 4 1 2.31( 3) 0 2 1 | 0 4 1 |  1.78 18 |  1.79 17 |  2.14 8  western
  17 New York Red Bulls =  1.87  1 3 2 1.88( 15) 0 0 1 | 0 0 1 |  2.16 8 |  1.96 15 |  1.56 21  EASTERN
  18 Chicago Fire =  1.83  1 2 3 1.97( 12) 0 2 0 | 0 2 1 |  1.85 16 |  1.81 16 |  1.86 16  EASTERN
  19 FC Cincinnati =  1.81  2 3 2 2.16( 6) 0 2 1 | 0 3 2 |  1.65 19 |  1.63 19 |  2.21 7  EASTERN
  20 Orlando City SC =  1.60  2 3 2 1.83( 19) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 |  1.58 20 |  1.54 20 |  1.71 19  EASTERN
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of April 17 Wednesday  
   RATING   W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.50] [  0.48] [  0.51] [  0.48]
  21 San Jose Earthquakes =  1.51  1 5 0 1.83( 18) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 |  1.10 24 |  1.23 24 |  1.85 17  western
  22 Portland Timbers =  1.36  0 5 1 2.45( 1) 0 2 0 | 0 3 0 |  1.36 22 |  1.34 22 |  1.41 23  western
  23 New England Revolution =  1.36  1 5 1 1.98( 11) 0 0 0 | 0 2 1 |  1.45 21 |  1.43 21 |  0.96 24  EASTERN
  24 Colorado Rapids =  1.30  0 5 2 2.08( 9) 0 2 1 | 0 4 1 |  1.29 23 |  1.23 23 |  1.42 22  western
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Divisional Rankings



There are three group ratings, the "central mean", the
"simple average" (also known as the "arithmetic mean",)
and the WIN50%.
The "central mean" gives the most weight to the middle team(s)
in the group and progressively less weight to teams as you go
away from the middle in either direction, up or down.
This tends to smooth out the effect of anomalous teams that are rated
much higher and lower than the middle team(s) in the group. The
"simple average" ("arithmetic mean") weights each team equally
no matter where they are relative to the middle.
Here are a few examples of how the "central mean" is computed.
  4-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-2-1
  5-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-2-1
  6-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-3-2-1
  7-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-3-2-1
  8-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-4-3-2-1
  9-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-4-3-2-1
 10-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-5-4-3-2-1
 11-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-5-4-3-2-1
 12-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-6-5-4-3-2-1
 13-team group ___ the weights are 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-6-5-4-3-2-1
This is an expanded version of the "tri-mean".

The WIN50% is the rating required to win 50% of the games if playing an
infinite number of round-robins in the given group at a neutral location.



   DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%

  1 western = 2.09 2.06 ( 1) 12 2.06 ( 1)
  2 EASTERN = 1.97 1.94 ( 2) 12 1.95 ( 2)


   DIVISION CENTRAL MEAN SIMPLE AVERAGE TEAMS WIN50%

  2 EASTERN = 1.97 1.94 ( 2) 12 1.95 ( 2)
  1 western = 2.09 2.06 ( 1) 12 2.06 ( 1)
______________________________________________________________________________________________________

By Division



_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  2 EASTERN = 1.97 1.94 ( 2) TEAMS= 12 1.95 ( 2)
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of April 17 Wednesday  
   RATING   W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.50] [  0.48] [  0.51] [  0.48]
  6 Toronto FC =  2.29  3 1 1 1.87( 16) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.35 6 |  2.37 7 |  2.12 9  EASTERN
  8 D.C. United =  2.26  4 1 2 1.84( 17) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.37 5 |  2.38 6 |  2.00 13  EASTERN
  9 Atlanta United FC =  2.14  1 2 2 2.00( 10) 0 0 0 | 0 1 1 |  2.08 11 |  2.16 9 |  2.06 11  EASTERN
  10 Philadelphia Union =  2.13  3 3 1 2.29( 4) 0 2 0 | 1 3 1 |  2.03 14 |  2.13 10 |  2.11 10  EASTERN
  11 Montreal Impact =  2.06  3 2 2 2.39( 2) 0 2 0 | 0 2 1 |  1.97 15 |  2.06 12 |  2.05 12  EASTERN
  12 New York City FC =  2.00  0 1 5 2.09( 8) 0 0 1 | 0 1 2 |  2.07 12 |  2.03 13 |  1.92 15  EASTERN
  13 Columbus Crew SC =  1.99  4 2 1 1.82( 20) 0 0 0 | 2 1 0 |  2.06 13 |  2.12 11 |  1.57 20  EASTERN
  17 New York Red Bulls =  1.87  1 3 2 1.88( 15) 0 0 1 | 0 0 1 |  2.16 8 |  1.96 15 |  1.56 21  EASTERN
  18 Chicago Fire =  1.83  1 2 3 1.97( 12) 0 2 0 | 0 2 1 |  1.85 16 |  1.81 16 |  1.86 16  EASTERN
  19 FC Cincinnati =  1.81  2 3 2 2.16( 6) 0 2 1 | 0 3 2 |  1.65 19 |  1.63 19 |  2.21 7  EASTERN
  20 Orlando City SC =  1.60  2 3 2 1.83( 19) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 |  1.58 20 |  1.54 20 |  1.71 19  EASTERN
  23 New England Revolution =  1.36  1 5 1 1.98( 11) 0 0 0 | 0 2 1 |  1.45 21 |  1.43 21 |  0.96 24  EASTERN
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

  1 western = 2.09 2.06 ( 1) TEAMS= 12 2.06 ( 1)
Major League Soccer 2019 through games of April 17 Wednesday  
   RATING   W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 5 | VS top 10 |  PREDICTOR  | GOLDEN_MEAN |  RECENT  

   HOME ADVANTAGE=[  0.50] [  0.48] [  0.51] [  0.48]
  1 Seattle Sounders FC =  2.65  5 0 1 1.69( 23) 0 0 0 | 1 0 0 |  2.72 2 |  2.77 2 |  2.45 4  western
  2 Sporting Kansas City =  2.52  2 1 3 1.91( 14) 0 1 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.56 3 |  2.53 3 |  2.49 3  western
  3 LA Galaxy =  2.49  5 1 0 1.73( 21) 0 0 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.37 4 |  2.41 4 |  2.96 1  western
  4 Los Angeles FC =  2.43  6 1 1 1.92( 13) 1 0 0 | 2 0 0 |  2.92 1 |  2.77 1 |  1.97 14  western
  5 Houston Dynamo =  2.37  4 0 1 1.46( 24) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 |  2.26 7 |  2.38 5 |  2.32 5  western
  7 FC Dallas =  2.27  4 2 1 1.73( 22) 1 0 0 | 1 1 0 |  2.11 9 |  2.27 8 |  2.27 6  western
  14 Vancouver Whitecaps FC =  1.95  1 4 2 2.16( 7) 1 2 1 | 1 2 1 |  1.82 17 |  1.72 18 |  2.81 2  western
  15 Minnesota United FC =  1.91  3 2 1 2.18( 5) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 |  2.09 10 |  1.96 14 |  1.76 18  western
  16 Real Salt Lake =  1.89  2 4 1 2.31( 3) 0 2 1 | 0 4 1 |  1.78 18 |  1.79 17 |  2.14 8  western
  21 San Jose Earthquakes =  1.51  1 5 0 1.83( 18) 0 2 0 | 0 2 0 |  1.10 24 |  1.23 24 |  1.85 17  western
  22 Portland Timbers =  1.36  0 5 1 2.45( 1) 0 2 0 | 0 3 0 |  1.36 22 |  1.34 22 |  1.41 23  western
  24 Colorado Rapids =  1.30  0 5 2 2.08( 9) 0 2 1 | 0 4 1 |  1.29 23 |  1.23 23 |  1.42 22  western
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


Predictions_with_Totals


  These are the "regular method". _
HOME or CLOSEBY (c) team in CAPS _
both teams in lower case _
means "n" for NEUTRAL location Rating Favorite _
  MONEY=odds to 100 _
  FAVORITE Rating Predict Golden Recent UNDERDOG ODDS PCT% TOTAL _
======================================================================================================
  ATLANTA UNITED FC 0.37 0.45 0.40 0.27 fc dallas 146 59% 2.67
  CHICAGO FIRE 1.02 1.04 1.08 0.92 colorado rapids 277 73% 3.54
  COLUMBUS CREW SC 1.13 1.19 1.29 0.65 portland timbers 304 75% 2.59
  D.C. UNITED 0.76 0.77 0.86 0.56 new york city fc 216 68% 2.72
  FC CINCINNATI 0.42 0.35 0.35 0.56 real salt lake 155 61% 2.57
  LA GALAXY 0.63 0.59 0.53 1.12 houston dynamo 190 65% 3.10
  LOS ANGELES FC 0.28 0.69 0.52 0.00 seattle sounders fc 133 57% 3.11
  new york red bulls 0.01 0.23 0.02 0.11 NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTI 101 50% 2.47
  ORLANDO CITY SC 0.15 0.24 0.34 -0.62 vancouver whitecaps 116 54% 2.84
  PHILADELPHIA UNION 0.57 0.54 0.58 0.54 montreal impact 179 64% 2.30
  sporting kansas city 0.52 0.97 0.79 0.16 SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES 170 63% 3.19
  TORONTO FC 0.88 0.74 0.91 0.83 minnesota united fc 242 71% 4.39

EIGENVECTOR Analysis eigen MONEY=odds to 100 EPCT%=confidence
  EFAVORITE ESPREAD EODDS EPCT% EUNDERDOG
  1 @ Chicago Fire 0.75 214 68% Colorado Rapids
  2 @ Columbus Crew SC 1.77 538 84% Portland Timbers
  3 @ D.C. United 0.92 252 72% New York City FC
  4 @ FC Cincinnati 0.27 132 57% Real Salt Lake
  5 FC Dallas 0.77 217 68% @ Atlanta United FC
  6 @ LA Galaxy 0.36 146 59% Houston Dynamo
  7 @ Los Angeles FC 0.60 185 65% Seattle Sounders FC
  8 New York Red Bulls 0.06 106 51% @ New England Revoluti
  9 @ Orlando City SC 0.26 131 57% Vancouver Whitecaps
  10 @ Philadelphia Union 0.05 106 51% Montreal Impact

  11 Sporting Kansas City 1.26 343 77% @ San Jose Earthquakes
  12 @ Toronto FC 0.27 133 57% Minnesota United FC
endfile

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